Zombie: The Five False Assumptions About Poll-Skewing

In an excellent piece posted on PJ Media, Zombie provides some valuable observations about poll-skewing.

Each side has defined for itself an ultimate goal. Obama’s supporters in the media and online strive incessantly to demonstrate and publicize that Obama is ahead in the polls. Romney’s supporters strive to demonstrate that those polls are skewed, since the published totals are “weighted” (i.e. arbitrarily distorted) to match statistics about past voter behavior that are no longer true.

Now, if you had just landed on Earth from another galaxy, you likely would be very confused about this behavior on the part of the poll-wrestlers. Presuming there is such a thing as objective reality, there must be a certain true percentage of people who support each candidate — so what purpose is served by intentionally misrepresenting that reality if, at the end of the campaign, that misrepresentation will be trumped by an actual vote? Isn’t the purpose of polls to reveal a snapshot of how things really stand?

Oh you naive extraterrestrials, we reply. Originally, yes, polls were meant to document reality, but nowadays polls are designed to mold reality. If two candidates are in truth currently tied, but we announce that one of them is in the lead, then on election day he will actually win, because our false poll reporting affected how people vote. Get it?

You can read the whole thing HERE. I recommend it.

Polls Designed to Supress Early Voting to Backfire?

(Scroll down for updates)

There has been a tremendous amount of coverage of current polling data that suggests Obama is pulling away from Romney in swing states, practically guaranteeing an Obama re-election. Take for example these headlines:

The Atlantic – “Romney Is Flailing in Ohio”

CNN – “Obama above 50% in some battleground polls”

CBS News – “Obama opens substantial leads in key swing states”

I could go on and on, but you’ve seen those same headlines in local newspapers and countless online sites.

The problem? Most of these polls are commissioned by such liberal media outlets as The New York Times, CNN, CBS, etc. These polls are using the same voter turnout model as occurred in the 2008 election. This model completely ignores the results of the 2010 elections and paints a far more favorable result for Obama in 2012 than has ever been demonstrated historically.

The question is WHY? Many theories abound, but I think Rush Limbaugh offers the best explanation. The skewed polling models are designed to suppress voter turnout for Romney, especially early voters. The suggestion is that an Obama re-election is inevitable, so why vote?

The dirty little secret is this: Republicans are highly motivated to vote, much more so than Democrats. I don’t expect that to change between now and the election.

So what if early voting is depressed? This will just make election day that much more intense and prove that current polling numbers were completely bogus. These attempts will indeed backfire! After all, the economy continues to tank, Obama’s foreign policy is in tatters and Obama’s campaign lies are becoming more obvious and desperate with each passing day.

UPDATE:

I knew there was something else I wanted to add and it’s this:

QStarNews Poll methods and modeling