Inside Cruz Day

I’ve had a chance to look at the complete results from yesterday’s runoff election in Texas for the Republican nomination to U.S. Senate. As Texans, we were bombarded with countless, negative Dewhurst ads during both the early voting period and the period between its end and election day. That 4 day period saw a phenomenal number of negative ads on radio and TV. But it wasn’t just the negative ads that were disgusting. Reports say that the Dewhurst campaign employed a Sarah Palin impersonator for robocalls, suggesting that Governor Palin was supporting David Dewhurst, a bald-faced lie. In addition, the Dewhurst campaign went to far as to suggest it had Tea Party support, which prompted an unprecedented rebuke from local Tea Party leaders.

Here’s what those deceptive tactics got Dewhurst. Look at Ted Cruz’s margin between early voting and election day.

Here is the letter from the Tea Party leaders.
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Ted Cruz Wins!

The AP has already called it and I’ve been celebrating the fact that Ted Cruz has won the run-off election for the GOP Senate race in Texas, but back to blogging.

Here are the results thus far, at 9:15pm CT:

It looks like the latest PPP poll was correct. Ted Cruz seems to have pulled off a 10 point victory. Notice the fact that Ted Cruz held a 5% margin during early voting, but extended that to 10% in the final results. That means that all the negative ads that Texas had to endure from Dewhurst since early voting ended didn’t amount to diddly squat! If anything, it hurt him!

I should add that this is a HUGE victory for the Tea Party!

More observations from the Texas GOP Senate primary

Our thoughts now turn to the run-off election. Based on past run-offs, we can expect a much-reduced participation level. The battle will be waged in the major population areas of the state. Keeping that in mind, I present the early and election day results from the 10 largest voting counties in Texas. It’s looking good for Ted Cruz!

All the above data was obtained from the Texas Secretary of State.

My previous analysis is HERE.

Observations from a Texas primary

Something just struck me as I reviewed the latest numbers from the Texas GOP primary for the U.S. Senate. I broke out the results between early voting and actual election day. As I suspected was happening, Ted Cruz saw a HUGE surge of support leading into yesterday’s primary voting. Keep in mind that this surge of support occurred despite the deluge of negative adds from the Dewhurst campaign over the Memorial Day weekend.

Election results from Texas Secretary of State

Professor William Jacobson at Le-gal In-sur-rec-tion asks the question, “So, how does Cruz win?” I think the answer is fairly simple: He picks up support from the other, non-Dewhurst candidates. If they didn’t vote for Dewhurst before, they surely won’t vote for him in a run-off.

Texas GOP Primary Results

The polls closed at 7pm Central time, 8pm Eastern time. I’ll provide updates on the GOP Senate race as election returns become available from the Texas Secretary of State. All updates are Central time. The key to this race is keeping Dewhurst under 50%. That will trigger a run-off at the end of July, between Dewhurst and Cruz.

9:12:47 PM
This is my last update. This election is destined for a run-off. To see updated election results, you can go here: Texas Secretary of State Election Results

Precincts 1,740 19.82% (8,779 Total)
Dewhurst 311,282 46.79%
Cruz 203,273 30.55%
Others (7) 150,783 22.66%

Total 665,338

9:02:47 PM
Precincts 1,363 15.53% (8,779 Total)
Dewhurst 291,932 46.85%
Cruz 187,880 30.15%
Others (7) 143,316 23.00%

Total 623,128

This is looking like it WILL go to a run-off, which is a huge win for Ted Cruz.
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Interview with Peter Konetchy

Join me on the Roderic Deane Show tomorrow, January 22nd at Noon ET. I’ll be talking with Peter Konetchy, GOP primary candidate for U.S. Senator from Michigan.

Peter is a strong, conservative candidate with many Grizzly-friendly qualities. He has a tough row to hoe, however, and we’ll talk about the obstacles he must overcome to succeed.

You can access the show page HERE.

Update: Ooops! I’ve got Grizzly Fest on my mind! Tomorrow’s show is in January, not February. I’ve changed the above text.